Tuesday, September 2, 2014

Lucia Russia has threatened Ukraine with nukes if they continue to resist

I am so disgusted and outraged and horrified by the sneaky invasion of Ukraine by Russia, and now what is escalating into a full scale invasion of Ukraine by Russia, complete with threats of nuclear weapon use, that I will now be deleting any trolling comments to do with this subject. Any comments on the rightness or justness of the invasion by Russia will also be deleted. As will any comments on how the "evil fascists" of Ukraine had it coming, because those especially, just feed into the Russian propaganda machine.

Anyway, now Russia is threatening Ukraine with nuclear strikes if Ukraine continues to resist the Russian invasion that can no longer be hidden.

From The Interpreter:

Ukrainian Defence Minister Says Russia Has Lost Hybrid War, Begun Invasion, And Threatened Nuclear Strikes
Interfax-Ukraine reports that Valeriy Heletey, the Ukrainian defence minister, has written on his Facebook page that Russia has lost its "hybrid war" against Ukraine. Instead a conventional war has now begun.

Heletey also said that Russia had, off record, threatened Ukraine with the use of tactical nuclear weapons. 

Interfax-Ukraine reports (translated by The Interpreter):

"Russia has lost its hybrid war in Ukraine. Our armed forces have confidently pushed back the gangs of Russian mercenaries and killed the saboteurs and special forces operatives. That is why the Kremlin has been forced to jump to a full-scale invasion of the Donbass with regular troops. Today we already dealing with divisions and regiments. Tomorrow it might be the corps itself," wrote the head of the Ministry of Defence on his Facebook page on Monday.

According to him, the operation to liberate eastern Ukraine "from the terrorists" is over. "We urgently need to build up our defence against Russia, which is attempting to not only gain a foothold in areas previously occupied by the terrorists, but also to advance into other areas of Ukraine," affirms V. Heletey.

He stressed that "a great war has come to Ukraine, the likes of which Europe has not seen since the time of the Second World War," and also expressed an opinion that the losses "will run not into the hundreds, but the thousands, even tens of thousands." In addition, the minister said that, according to unofficial channels, the Russian side has threatened several times that "in the event of continued resistance, they are prepared to use tactical nuclear weapons against us."

V. Heletey also said that, in order to survive, Ukraine needs the "full consolidation of all available forces." He also described calls for the dismissal of the chief of the General Staff, Viktor Muzhenko, "a Russian provocation," noting that this head of the Ukrainian General Staff has been "the architect of Ukrainian victories in the east."

"Were it not for the Russian invasion, we would have completed the active phase of the ATO by early October, liberating the entire area," said the minister.

This "hybrid war" that Russia has lost is mentioned here: Russia's Slow Motion Invasion Of Ukraine. The writer believes that rather than a new form of warfare, Russia has merged new tactics with the old Soviet strategy of Maskirovka:

...Putin's particular style of deception recalls the Soviet strategy of Maskirovka (masking), which was developed in the 1920s and defined by the Soviet Military Encyclopedia as "complex measures to mislead the enemy regarding the presence and disposition of forces, military objectives, combat readiness and plans."

"[T]he idea is to create political uncertainty and ambiguity in order to make it hard for an enemy to know how to respond militarily," Stephen Badsey, a professor of conflict studies at the University of Wolverhampton in the U.K., told me by email.

During the Cold War, the Soviets hatched scenarios for making incursions into Western Europe that in many ways resemble Russia's behavior in Ukraine—"for example, a fire-engine crew crossing into West Berlin to help with a fire, followed by police, followed by soldiers, who then refuse to go," Badsey said. "Putin learned all this as basic early in his career, as did all his generals."

In drawing on these decades-old techniques, he added, Russia has now pulled off the "first ever opposed but successful seizure of territory of one UN member by another since the UN's foundation in 1945," leaving the U.S. and its Western allies "confused and uncertain as to how to respond."

Ultimately, Russia's invasion/incursion/aggression/staycation in Ukraine isn't quite Maskirovka, and it's not an entirely new breed of warfare. It is, perhaps, new tactics in the service of an old strategy. It's a "total system of measures designed to deceive and confuse the enemy," as one U.S. military study described Maskirovka in 1981. But it's also the sleek, social media-savvy propaganda campaigns of Russian news outlets like RT.

With that last point, on the "sleek, social media-savvy propaganda campaigns of Russian news outlets like RT", note that the Russian media is also expanding in Europe (Russia Ramps Up Information War in Europe).

Meanwhile, protesting against the war against the Ukranians will get you arrested in Russia.



The video above shows a whole lot of young Russian men being interviewed about the war. At the end, several women holding up signs against the war were taken away.

4 comment(s):

William Stout said...

Russia will not resort to tactical nukes in the Ukraine. The threat was made to
amplify the anxiety and distress felt by the Ukrainian government and
population. Putin's real goal is to collapse the Ukrainian economy. By keeping the war alive in the East, Putin stifles investment in the Ukraine by the West. Add to that the pressure of having turned off the gas to the Ukraine. While this is still August, winter is coming and the population of the Ukraine knows that it will freeze without that gas.

Putin will play hardball with the Ukraine, but he does not wish for unnecessary casualties. Don't misunderstand me, if he has to kill large numbers of people he will most certainly do so. But if he can achieve his objectives without undue slaughter, he will. This is why he will not authorize the release of tactical nukes. He is positioning troops and material in order to place pressure on the Ukrainian government and to prevent the conflict from resolving before he has achieved his objective of forcing the Ukraine into submission as a satellite state.

Without the West, the Ukraine will fold. There really is no other outcome. Sooner or later, the will of the public will crumble and the politicians will have no choice. But the repercussions will be felt long after the Ukraine folds. The Baltic states are worried about being next on Russia's menu, NATO has no idea what to do, and the United States fiddles while the Russians expand their borders.

Worse, the United States and the West assured the Ukraine that we would defend them from Russian aggression. That promise was made in order to get them to release their nuclear arms. An exchange made in good faith at the time. Unfortunately, times and leaders change and that agreement isn't worth the paper that it is printed on. In fact, the U.S. has not even sent the combat rations we promised them and there is no way that we will support them with small arms shipments. A bitter lesson for them to be sure.

Now Estonia, Latvia, and others question the reliability of NATO and the United States in the face of hanging the Ukraine out to dry. The U.N. (a useless organization if ever there were one) will do nothing to help. America used to defend the helpless. We used to stand up to aggressors and advocate for the innocent. Despair is beginning to be felt in Kiev and the populace are fearful. I would also submit that the Cold War has been re-ignited by this travesty as well if there were still men of character left in Washington.

Make no mistake, darkness is moving in the world today and
there is much worse yet to come.

Lucia Maria said...

William,

I so hope you are wrong, but ... I fear you are not.

Maria said...

I am not sure if the cold war image is the one we see here. Nor do I know the facts on the ground...to much going on in the world! But it seems to me that Russia is more like pre-communist Russian...which makes Putin a sort of Tsar or at least those who come after him.
I do think he read Syria correctly.
Looking at the RT news interviewing the rebel/Russian soldiers they speak about what is going on in a way which is quite different to western rhetoric. The glory of war seems to come to mind.
My own visit to Eastern Europe gives me the sense that the sense of national identity is very strong and unapologetically so. In the west we feel threatened by that.

Lucia Maria said...

Hi Maria,

Sorry about the delay in replying, I've spent a bit of time looking into past articles I've read and then got seriously side-tracked. This happens to me a lot!

You asked, "So is Russia cold war communist still or more imperialist Tsarist?"

I was going to write a long comment, but it was easier to format the answer into a post: Link to post.

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