Tuesday, September 11, 2012

Lucia Conservative Party up in latest poll and Labour down

Labour has dropped 2% in the latest poll and some of that drop could be attributed to the same-sex marriage legislation put forward by Labour Louisa Wall and voted for at it's first reading by most Labour MPs and some National MPs, including John Key, the Prime Minister. National hasn't taken a hit over being ruled from behind by Labour yet, most of the ire is being directed at Labour, but people in my circles are certainly noticing this disturbing trend.

What's even more interesting, is that 9% of those who have voted in online poll said they would vote for the Conservative Party if an election were held today. However, that number would not be representative of NZ as a whole, rather it shows that there are a significant proportion of conservative supporters out there who are active online.

Conservative Party lifted by gay issue ~ NZ Herald

6 comment(s):

David Winter said...

You're really reading way too much into that poll. Polls are estimates of the real support for each party and, as such, come with sampling error. In this case neither the 2% drop for labour or the 1% gain for the CCCP is signifantly more than you would expect to get if you polled exactly the same electorate twice.

Maybe the things you think are happening are, but the poll doesn't provide any evidence for it.

Lucia Maria said...


David Winter said...

"Colin Craig's Conservative Party" - although I think they changed that before registering

Lucia Maria said...

Hi David,

I presume it's easier to abbreviate the Conservative Party of NZ to CP, as CCCP just looks weird. I've seen CCCP used in a derogatory way, so I was wondering why you were using it.

As for your comment about the poll, I actually agree that polls aren't necessarily reflective of what is actually going on. I'm happy with my interpretation, and also happy to say that it's just that - an interpretation of what I think is going on. It'll be interesting to see if these same sorts of dips and jumps occur after the next same-sex marriage vote.

Andrei said...

CCCP looks like the Cyrillic letters SSSR which of course was the Cyrillic version of USSR.

Which is of course why Colin Craig's opponents love to use it.

dad4justice said...

Conservatives do not handle comrades to well. Look at history and tough boy Putin nowadays.
Bring it on lefty turnips.

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