Winston Plays Bogey Golf - Back 9

This is Part II of a review of Winston's speech made at Hutt Golf Club, July 31, 2008. Click here for: Part I - Front 9.

Winston's caddy for the game, ZenTiger takes us through the back nine holes.

Hole 10 - Lakeside - Par 3
This is a tricky par 3 across Illot Lake. Everyone has to play over the water, and so Winston provides the bridge in his two point tax plan:

"New Zealand First wants to see a tax free threshold of $5,200 introduced."
"New Zealand First also wants to see GST reduced to 10% across the board."

No chance of a hole-in-one with that shot. He spends a bit of time explaining why this is such a good shot, and yet at the same time he says that one hole does not a round of golf make. It gave him another par.

It makes eminent sense in terms of both practicality and fairness for the most vulnerable in our society to have relief from tax on the first part of their earnings. The reason is simple – a tax cut will increase your income, but only a reduction in GST will address the issue of affordability.

Consider this – interest rates rise to curb inflation. Inflation rises when prices rise for goods and services. Cutting GST actually reduces the cost of everything – at least in the short term – reversing pressures on inflation.

It simply makes sense."

There's that appeal to common sense again. The last time we believed that, we got the Electoral Finance Act. Everyone knows that economics and common sense do not go together.

"So in contrast to the other parties we offer a tax policy that is clear, easily understood, practical and delivers immediate benefits in terms of extra income and a lower cost of living."

So he's seen National's policy then? And Labour increasing the tax thresholds is confusing to him? That's probably why he infamously said being Minister for Foreign Affairs has nothing to do with trade. ACT's policy of a flat tax must be really confusing. One tax rate. Period. I agree, how do you simplify that? We moved to the 11th and I scored a bogey.

Hole 11 - Kelson - par 5
Play smart! Place your tee shot so as you can set up your second. For big hitters, left is good as it does give a line to the green. For mere mortals, lay up the second short of the fairway bunkers and then attack the pin.

"But we also have a fundamental difference with Labour and National on where tax cuts fit in terms of an overall economic policy. We do not believe tax cuts should be the centrepiece – the main focus - of economic policy to the exclusion and detriment of other critical areas. For this reason we will not be indulging National and Labour’s schoolyard game of "ours is better than yours" when it comes to tax cuts in this election."

Fundamental differences? The Labour party believes in tax cuts like they believe in buying votes. When the time is right, then it's the right thing to do. The National party believes in tax cuts like it's a point of differentiation. Less tax means less government interference to them. That's why they wont turn back any of Labour's social engineering policies, but make sure we all feel richer at pay day. Many centre right voters are still waiting to see if National have greater ideological depth to this point of differentiation. It's what will help our economy grow or stagnate. Winston says much the same thing. He just uses it as an excuse.

"In fact we ask why should tax – an important but in reality an open and shut issue – be allowed to dominate the economic agenda? In truth, focusing on tax cuts is a convenient way of drawing people’s attention away from the deeper and more fundamental challenges facing the economy - that neither Labour nor National actually want to address."

No matter, he's finally on the green:

"So our message to New Zealanders is straightforward. Certainly let us have tax cuts. But let us not pretend that tax cuts are the magic bullet – the panacea that will transform our economy. Our message to New Zealanders is this: Look beyond tax cuts. Look for what it is going to take to radically improve our economic prospects as a country. Look at which party is offering a long term economic strategy to take New Zealand into the future."

I think Winston, The Greens and ACT all say this. Certainly, Brash had this speech down pat and Roger Douglas scared a few people silly with this speech. Same words, different strokes. For Winston, another bogey and we move to the the 12th.

Hole 3 - Citadel - par 3
This hole plays longer than you think. Take an extra club and carry the ball to the pin. With four pot bunkers, two on each side, the tee shot is blind. Winston tries to take it close to the trees:

"First and foremost among the areas that need to be addressed is the role of the Reserve Bank. As a matter of urgency, we must rewrite the Reserve Bank Act. Now this is an obscure piece of legislation that very few New Zealanders understand and even fewer have actually read.

Ah, now I see his tactic. Adopt obscure policy directives on obscure bits of legislation that few will understand - Winston is indeed a master of bogey golf. Few have actually also read page 26 of the Reserve Bank June Economic Statement for that matter. I really need to get Winston's copy. Mine is obviously out of date.

"The job of the Reserve Bank should be to maintain stability in the economy in terms of employment and growth as well as keeping inflation under control – as it is for example in the UK and the US. We have to break out of the straight jacket that requires the bank to take a single minded hard line on inflation, irrespective of the performance of the economy, and irrespective of the fact that much of New Zealand’s inflation results from rising import costs rather than inflation generated here.

Unless we have the courage to rewrite the Reserve Bank Act, high interest rates and an overvalued dollar will continue to cripple our economy.

As we have already noted – the dogma of the Reserve Bank means that 95,000 people must lose their jobs so the Governor can keep his..

Somehow, he pulls off a par and we stroll to the next hole.

Hole 13 - Avalon - par 4
This is a challenging dogleg right. Distances are deceptive because of the angle of the approach to the green and the bunker to the left is always in play. This green has a huge crown back middle right which creates an enormous amount of break to the front left and it is generally very fast.

Winston tees off and goes right.

"The New Zealand based economic think tank BERL, which actually works on New Zealand based solutions not imported ones has tackled this matter and written an extremely good paper on it. They have arrived at the same conclusions as New Zealand First – that the Reserve Bank Act needs to be rewritten."

He plays another shot fading right:

"In fact Mark Weldon – the head of the New Zealand Stock Exchange – has also expressed this view publicly. So we have been joined by some pretty sound economic minds on this matter.

Well, now that the matter is settled, what conclusions did NZ First come up with, as economic thought leaders in this space. Oh, nothing. Luckily, BERL did and NZ First adopts their policy:

"The BERL research offered four steps in rewriting the Reserve Bank Act which we want to raise tonight.

1 – To include the balance of payments and full employment (along with inflation) as equally important objectives for the Reserve Bank,

2 – To formally empower the Reserve Bank to manage the liquidity of the financial system,

3 – To facilitate open market operations involving long term, as well as short term securities, and;

4 – To facilitate a transparent "sterilised float" of the New Zealand Dollar.

These are all extremely well thought out and, most importantly, New Zealand driven ideas.

You see if the mandate to save those 95, 000 jobs were in place then the Reserve Bank would behave differently.

I quickly flick to that Reserve Bank June statement again, and can't find this reference to 95,000 jobs that's there in black and white on page 26. Oh hang on, BERL's done the calculations for me: BERL forecasts 95,000 jobs to go.

You think Winston is a paid up subscriber? Or is this where his $158,000 worth of charity donations went? Winston shoots a double-bogey on the hole and I'm wondering if Winston, as Minister for Racing, found some other "extremely well thought out and, most importantly, New Zealand driven ideas" to lower the Duty rate from 20% to 4% for the Vela family and other Kiwis in the horse racing business. Or maybe they just came to the same conclusions? Golf is obviously more than just hitting a small white ball around with a big stick.

Hole 14 - Terrace - par 4
With fairway that is narrower due to left hand sloping and right hand bunkers, the best tee shot finishes down the left and between the two fairway bunkers. Winston duffs his shot a little but it rolls well.

"If export growth and addressing our outrageously large balance of payments deficit was a priority then the Reserve Bank would behave differently. You see there really is an alternative – one which can be built around what is best for all New Zealanders. In the 2008 election campaign New Zealand First will be saying to New Zealanders - do not be deceived."

In golf, as in politics, you always worry about the next shot. That's why finishing one shot with "do not be deceived" and starting another with:

"When you look at the tax packages on offer you will find New Zealand First has the edge."

..may not be the best approach shot. I'm called to mind that the edge is often the thing that marks the top of a large cliff. Another bogey and we are on the 15th. I'm now thinking of the 19th.

Hole 15 - Stopbank - par 4
This is a very long hole if a southerly blows. Drive your tee shot over the stopbank to the left centre fairway. Mens par 4 but a ladies par 5. Equality in golf is based on the principles of progressive taxation, called handicaps. Still, men have long known ladies need an extra stroke. You'd think if we men can find a small hole in the middle of a large field..anyway, I digress. Winston had a big wood out:

"But look further. Look at who is facing up to the deeper economic issues facing New Zealand and who is offering new thinking about the economy.

Because in the area of economic policy the time is ripe for bold and innovative thinking – and that is what we intend to bring to the 2008 election.

Today we have set out a number of policy steps that we see as priorities if we are to ensure New Zealand’s future prosperity.

All of these steps are practical and achievable."

Ah! So today, we've seen two tax cuts, a prediction of 95,000 job losses demanded by the Reserve Bank, and because economics is too complicated for us voters, we need to trust NZ First, who have squarely set the re-structure of the Reserve Bank as the centre-piece issue driving NZ economic prosperity. Another bogey.

Hole 16 - Narrows - par 4
Respect this hole, it has more dangers than you think. The green is reasonably flat. Winston plays regulation and gains a par:

But most importantly they will go a long way to safeguard the wellbeing of all New Zealanders.

Hole 17 - Stockade - Par 4
The ideal tee shot is right centre and short of the band of heavy rough. And this is another dogleg to the left. Winston sums up what New Zealanders deserve:

They deserve nothing less.

Is that mean we get less tax after all? Does it mean we get less explanation? Every-time Winston has promised more, he's delivered less. His full and frank explanations of the issues around a series of donations by the wealthy Vela family may all be legal, but what of the issue of influencing racing policy? Bob Jones might be an opinionated rich bastard with a mean right hook, but he's pretty straight up and down - what happened to his $25,000 donation? And how much is Owen Glenn's generous donation to NZ First Legal Expenses have been properly declared? I didn't actually see Winston sink his putt, but he assures me that it was a par and we move on to the last hole.

Hole 18 - Waterloo - par 3
With water to carry from tee to green, bunkers guarding the left and right and the back, this is a difficult finishing hole which can make or break your game. The difficult, three-tiered green will see a downhill putt run away down the slope towards the water. Play to the centre of the tier with the flag for the only chance of a semi-level putt. The breaks can be seen but can be hard to judge.

My advice to Winston on playing the last hole, "Waterloo" seemed as apt as the messages coming from the rising tide of commentary in the press, the blogs, the talk back radio and even within the NZ first party faithful.

My review stops here, but the game isn't over. How Winston plays it could leave NZ First under the 5% threshold, with no seat. Political oblivion, and the golf clubs destined for the lake - car keys included.

Or he might pull it back and make a birdie with the party faithful cheering him on. There must be a few from the Labour golf club that might still see NZ first as an improvement. In that situation Nz First will remain our two main parties greatest handicap, and yet they will both be saying "we play the ball, not the man".

In golf, there's not much difference.

Related Link: Winston plays Bogey Golf - The Front 9

Winston at Hutt Golf Club: There has always been an alternative

With unasked thanks to Hutt Golf Club.