Many people have been wondering on what basis NIWA took a whole bunch of temperature readings over time, and then adjusted the readings upwards as part of good scientific practice. Some people have called for the assumptions used in the calculations to be made public so they can understand science at work.
The call for transparency is quite reasonable, but not required. I hacked into their computer system last night and extracted some emails that clear this whole confusing mess up, and it turns out the upward trends are all easily explained.
Some of the emails are provided below, so please turn down the heat on NIWA and just cool it for a while:
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
You haven't added the standard deviation as set by international agreement for AGW. Throw in .6 degrees.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Yeah, done. Right next to the automatic increment based on CPI.
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Don't forget we moved the temperature station in 1945 up the hill. Add .2 to account for atmospheric variation.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Is that why they spiked from 45? Closer to the sun?
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Sh*t yeah. At least 10m up the hill and much closer to the sun, but a greater probability of being located under a shady tree, so we have to assume leaf coverage will drop the readings by .6 degrees, and adjust for that.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
But there aren't any trees on that hill.
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Of course there aren't trees on that particular hill, but we still use the probability coefficient of the derivative to calculate the mean standard deviation of the sine of the hypotenuse to estimate the log value of a tree trunk existing within 10m of any temperature gauge in the entire world, and then can extrapolate that probability out to assume that there may well be a tree trunk at some point in time that looms over the temperature gauge which shields it from the sun and masks the true value of the temperature reading and therefore, we need to increase the reading based on that scientific principle.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Well, I guess that makes sense. So, add .6 degrees then?
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Exactly, but round it up to the nearest whole number just to be on the safe side. I just saw the figures from Mann and he's beating us by 15 degrees year on year.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
-------------------------
Well I have it on good authority his temperature gauge was moved inside by the fire place during winter to save going outside to check the readings. Why do they call his graph the hockey stick anyway?
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Because the data is pucked.
--ZenTiger
Well, maybe this is all a storm in a teacup, but I for one am interested to understand the justifications that NIWA have used to alter the data, especially as from what I have heard all the readings have been altered upwards. Have any been factored downwards?
I thought the deal with temperature recorders was that as urbanization increases around them, there are more heat sources, reflective surfaces, heat traps etc that actually mean temperatures could arguably be adjusted downwards. So NIWA declaring their workings and relating them to the actual station and the history of the station seems to be something worth understanding.
Time may tell, providing NIWA do.
The call for transparency is quite reasonable, but not required. I hacked into their computer system last night and extracted some emails that clear this whole confusing mess up, and it turns out the upward trends are all easily explained.
Some of the emails are provided below, so please turn down the heat on NIWA and just cool it for a while:
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
You haven't added the standard deviation as set by international agreement for AGW. Throw in .6 degrees.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Yeah, done. Right next to the automatic increment based on CPI.
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Don't forget we moved the temperature station in 1945 up the hill. Add .2 to account for atmospheric variation.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Is that why they spiked from 45? Closer to the sun?
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Sh*t yeah. At least 10m up the hill and much closer to the sun, but a greater probability of being located under a shady tree, so we have to assume leaf coverage will drop the readings by .6 degrees, and adjust for that.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
But there aren't any trees on that hill.
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Of course there aren't trees on that particular hill, but we still use the probability coefficient of the derivative to calculate the mean standard deviation of the sine of the hypotenuse to estimate the log value of a tree trunk existing within 10m of any temperature gauge in the entire world, and then can extrapolate that probability out to assume that there may well be a tree trunk at some point in time that looms over the temperature gauge which shields it from the sun and masks the true value of the temperature reading and therefore, we need to increase the reading based on that scientific principle.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Well, I guess that makes sense. So, add .6 degrees then?
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Exactly, but round it up to the nearest whole number just to be on the safe side. I just saw the figures from Mann and he's beating us by 15 degrees year on year.
FROM: Tom in Data Analysis
TO: NIWA Head Scientist
-------------------------
Well I have it on good authority his temperature gauge was moved inside by the fire place during winter to save going outside to check the readings. Why do they call his graph the hockey stick anyway?
TO: Tom in Data Analysis
FROM: NIWA Head Scientist
--------------------------
Because the data is pucked.
--ZenTiger
Well, maybe this is all a storm in a teacup, but I for one am interested to understand the justifications that NIWA have used to alter the data, especially as from what I have heard all the readings have been altered upwards. Have any been factored downwards?
I thought the deal with temperature recorders was that as urbanization increases around them, there are more heat sources, reflective surfaces, heat traps etc that actually mean temperatures could arguably be adjusted downwards. So NIWA declaring their workings and relating them to the actual station and the history of the station seems to be something worth understanding.
Time may tell, providing NIWA do.
http://www.niwa.co.nz/news-and-publications/news/all/niwa-confirms-temperature-rise/combining-temperature-data-from-multiple-sites-in-wellington
ReplyDeleteThanks, Tom.
ReplyDeleteTBR have gone through the explanation with more questions.
You forgot to add the .9 degress for the hot air blowing out their @#*%^!!!!!
ReplyDeleteAlso the data was collected in the Death Valley.
Seriously what concerns me at the moment is the wind. Tauranga hasn't stopped blowing for the last 4 weeks. Sure our clothes dry in 15 minutes but that is the only benefit. Is this a result of Global Warming?