NZ Labour election strategy

Helen Clark has confirmed she overstated the importance of tax cuts at the Labour Party conference last year, says National Party Leader John Key.

"Claiming in a newspaper today that tax cuts will be 'part of the mix, but their importance may have been overstated' is a clear indication that she has backed away from meaningful tax cuts because Michael Cullen simply has no desire to implement them.

Err, sort of Mr Key. But I think it is telling us much more than that.

NZ Labour have decided that the best way to fight this election is to go with the "National are rich pricks" strategy. This ties in with the way they are positioning the Electoral Finance Act. Obviously, any group with more than $120,000 to spend are "rich pricks", even if 10,000 people donate $12 each to fund such advertising. The point is that anyone who tries to counter Labour's message will be branded "rich pricks" or buyers of elections, regardless.

They will be counting on you John to put some generous tax cuts on the table that they will immediately characterise as pandering to the rich. They will also have a raft of benefits and cuts on offer, but they will be promoting heavily a commitment to the environment (Kyoto) and offering said tax cuts and rebates to supposedly offset Kyoto taxes, and making the centre piece of their election strategy all about how important it is for Kiwis to put the planet before their pocket.

Last election, even with a 6 billion dollar surplus, it was "cut taxes and you cut services". This time around it will be "cut taxes and you destroy New Zealand's clean green environment and destroy the planet. But here's a rebate." [refer Tax Terminology]

I'm predicting The Ministry for the Environment will be spending millions on this. The writing on the wall was made months ago, when Miss Helen Clark told parliament: "I believe New Zealand can aim to be the first nation to be truly sustainable." So you can sure NZ Labour will be theming their advertising to exploit the advertising dollars being spent by the Ministry for the Environment.

Another reason for making Climate Change the topic of the election is NZ Labour's preference for always leading with their weaknesses. They realise that they are going to be hammered by the huge cost of living prices caused by their poor handling of energy costs. The best way to deflect the criticism is to bring it into the open and appear up front. They then have the opportunity to frame the debate.

Remember the Kyoto bungle? Labour signed up to Kyoto saying we would be receiving credits. But they stuffed up and we actually have to pay billions. They will be keen to get past this issue. They may even be audacious enough to suggest that if National get into power, our Kyoto payments will double or treble and how grateful Kiwi's should be that the paltry billion dollars NZ Labour are paying is a really, really good deal.

So it's a fair bet NZ Labour are going to lead with and leverage the Climate Change debate for all its worth. In fact, it would be madness to ignore it. When Christchurch turns its lights off for an hour, you can tell this issue is serious.

This is one area they can count on the left-leaning factions of the media to get behind in. Even bad news stories will feature sound bites on how Labour are taking a leadership approach. All will be forgiven or forgotten as NZ Labour leads the world in Saving the Planet - without resorting to nuclear power!

If Labour don't lead with Climate Change, then any attack by National will be potentially devastating. However, by fronting on this issue, they gain the ability to push the message that the news might be bad, but Labour are doing something about it. Any criticism that follows from National will be painted as a "head in the sand attitude" that is blaming Labour unfairly. The truth that Labour should take a big responsibility for getting us to this position will become secondary to the problems that need solving. The assumption will seem to be that only Labour are speaking of solutions, backed by the media and the Ministry for the Environment. Hell, they may even promise free Al Gore videos in every class room so that Al Gore himself will burn some carbon miles to endorse them in person, from a ski lodge in Queenstown.

So of course Helen is now downplaying tax cuts, but not exactly for the reasons John Key has assumed. Expect to see tax "rebates" to offset hikes in power, petrol and rates, but for these rebates to couched as helping the poorer people prepare for the Kyoto obligations that prove we are saving the planet, and that the "rich pricks" have the money anyway. They may even park their BMW's in the garage and rent a few hybrids until the election is over.

And their strategy will be somewhat reliant on National being predictable. They are hoping National will simply offer tax cuts across the board as part of an economic growth strategy.

Not only will that give Labour the ammunition to paint National as being concerned about those shadowy "rich pricks", but economic growth as a concept for ensuring full employment and job certainty is too intangible a concept for swing voters to sink their teeth into. The middle New Zealanders that determine election outcomes will see more nobility in tightening their belts for the good of the planet, relieved they don't need to vote Green to accomplish this - and besides, those rebates to help pay the expected 30% increase in power and fuel prices will seem very attractive.

It would be easy for National to combat NZ Labour's election 2008 strategy. If only National can see it! Given John Key's above line of attack, unfortunately I don't think they have any idea at this point in time, or the press release would have read differently.

Come on Mr Key - the political climate is changing. NZ Labour are the primary cause, and its time to reduce their noxious emissions. Help keep NZ beautiful.

Related Link: Clark cuts tax cuts