Welcome to the Club John Key

Who advises the advisors? National show yet again they don't get strategy. The leaders only debate is a great idea for Helen. She's trailing as preferred Prime Minister, and Labour are way behind National in the polls. She's a formidable debater and not afraid of going for the jugular, canny enough to deliver lines that target the swing voters. There's not much upside in John Key testing himself on prime time at this point of the campaign.

So why did he agree with Helen? Far better to have some of the minor parties deflecting Helen's talking points. Far better to suggest therefore that he would appear in either format, but would prefer the full representation of all leaders, AND additional time. Having said that, he could have then said, 'so sort it out with Helen and get back to me'. That would have backed Helen into a corner and the longer she pushed to get her way, the worse it would have looked to voters.

And the other option then may have played out - Key in a leaders debate with all parties except for Helen. Masterful.

The minor parties would also have appreciated the support and he needs to respect the importance of forming alliances with the Maori Party and Act. Look at the situation now - all parties are furious with the 'arrogance' displayed by Key and Clark.

With all parties present, Helen would have a harder time talking about 'trust' in her carefully positioned terms. Winston's presence would be a reminder that she isn't above political power at any cost. The Maori party long since stopped trusting Labour, and the Greens have little reason to continue to swallow that line from Helen. I could expand on these themes, but you get the idea.

The other point to make is that this debate could have been a dry run anyway. If Key needed to, he could challenge Helen to a one-on-one after this debate, and the networks would eagerly support it.

In short, John Key continues to play into Helen's hands and I don't see much in the way of strategic gamesmanship from National.

Whilst people's minds are somewhat frayed over the weight of the minor parties, the vote the minor parties collectively gather represents are fair percentage at the polls, and therefore a fair percentage of voters with different opinions on the first round debates of the election. National had an opportunity to position Labour and Helen Clark as arrogant, dismissive of her coalition partners and desperate for power. Instead, the media are painting both of them in that light. Helen is laughing her head off and has probably already sent him a note:

"Welcome to the club John"