Thursday, December 31, 2009

ZenTiger Let's give them 9 years

AGW advocates have given us the science, told us it's settled and have the models to prove it. Fair enough. Let's give them 9 years to prove it, and if they get it spectacularly wrong, only then let's suggest skepticism is well placed and their own accusations of "denier" can be seen as nothing but baseless slurs.

Nine years sounds like a fair deal - so are you with me or not?

Well, here's a prediction from the Climate Scientists at the University of East Anglia, the University at the centre of the Climategate controversy, where they have used the sum of many, many years of thorough and precise research to confidently predict the end of snow in Britain. Because of Man-made Global Warming.

Now the neat thing about this is that the prediction was made in 2000, so we only have to wait until tonight for their 9 years to be up. Have a read of what they said back then:

Snowfalls are just a thing of the past
Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Britain's winter ends tomorrow with further indications of a striking environmental change: snow is starting to disappear from our lives.

Sledges, snowmen, snowballs and the excitement of waking to find that the stuff has settled outside are all a rapidly diminishing part of Britain's culture, as warmer winters - which scientists are attributing to global climate change - produce not only fewer white Christmases, but fewer white Januaries and Februaries.

The first two months of 2000 were virtually free of significant snowfall in much of lowland Britain, and December brought only moderate snowfall in the South-east. It is the continuation of a trend that has been increasingly visible in the past 15 years: in the south of England, for instance, from 1970 to 1995 snow and sleet fell for an average of 3.7 days, while from 1988 to 1995 the average was 0.7 days. London's last substantial snowfall was in February 1991.

Global warming, the heating of the atmosphere by increased amounts of industrial gases, is now accepted as a reality by the international community. Average temperatures in Britain were nearly 0.6°C higher in the Nineties than in 1960-90, and it is estimated that they will increase by 0.2C every decade over the coming century. Eight of the 10 hottest years on record occurred in the Nineties.

However, the warming is so far manifesting itself more in winters which are less cold than in much hotter summers. According to Dr David Viner, a senior research scientist at the climatic research unit (CRU) of the University of East Anglia,within a few years winter snowfall will become "a very rare and exciting event".

"Children just aren't going to know what snow is," he said.
[rest of article]

Heathrow closes airport due to snow (2 Feb 2009)

Snow falls in London (16 Dec 2009)

Obviously, AGW scientists will be wising up to their previous indiscretions and changing their 5 or 10 year predictions to being 50 years out to ensure they don't get egg on their faces, at least initially. However, given the spectacular failure of this prediction, in spite of the intense peer reviewed science behind such confidence, why should we not be skeptical of the whole AGW story?

There are very real environmental problems to confront right now that are man-made: over fishing, fresh water quality being affected by pesticide and fertilizer run-off and bad resource management. Let's focus on those, and the sustainable practices that will occur in working for solutions for these issues. I suspect the only reason focus is being diverted from these to AGW is because AGW "requires" a new tax system and a global governance organisation.

We've been debating this for 10 years now, time to move on to the real issues. Chances are in solving these problems, we could assume the "A" part of any effect on the environment would be reduced in any.

Thanks to the Briefing Room for this story: UK Met Office then and now

Update: Was 2009 a one-off event?

2 comment(s):

Gooner said...

Only bloggers with kids are at home tonight on their computers!

Watching Aston Villa v Liverpool the other morning I get the feeling pro football players might like to see the end of snow in the UK (it snowed during the game).

ZenTiger said...

Aye, mine just went off to bed a while ago and will cruise until closer to midnight and then quaff a champagne with my wife and bring in the New Year. Maybe a couple of phone calls to friends in Aus...

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