Friday, October 28, 2011

Andrei Quote of the day

"If you had to readjust the constant in Newton's law of gravity every time you got out of bed in the morning in order for it to agree with your scale, it wouldn't be much of a law But in finance they just keep on recalibrating and pretending that the models work."
This comes from a Scientific American Article: Why Economic Models Are Always Wrong

No surprises here for the numerate and although the article picks out the models used in financial risk analysis the conclusions apply to any and all models of complex dynamic systems.

Including of course all those IPCC models used to justify making everything more expensive in the name of saving the planet ie Nick Smith's insane ETS.

Of course I can sum the conclusion everybody should draw from this.

It is impossible to predict the future with any degree of accuracy and nobody can do it.

Just ask Harold Camping who has now withdrawn from public life.

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